S139 Conference Championships
This is it, the season finale and the start of the real season... Division 2 Playoffs! To win the Conference Championship will not only determine to teams to earn a seed but also determine those hanging by a thread to slip into the tournament. Tonight, we will take a look at the match-ups and how it could breakdown.
If there was not a conference championship game and the playoffs were starting tonight, these would be the top 16 teams in their perspective brackets.
Central Oklahoma**
Texas A&M-Commerce** W. New Mexico Missouri_Rolla
Cheyney
Bloomsburg N. Michigan*** W. Liberty St.
N. Alabama
Long Island Ferris State*** N. Dakota State*
Humboldt State*
Virginia State Shepherd Midwestern State
The games with * have huge implications in the way these brackets could line out. Each of those teams are playing against each other, so there will be a loser. All the teams will stay them all in the tournament, but the teams likes Valdosta State, Winona State and Southern Connecticut could move up to better seeds. The shift from the losses could also drastically change up which teams end up where. There are zero SimAI games which is great and means we will have another season of all human opponents.
#4 Humboldt St (13-0) vs
(12-1) N. Dakota St.
jaylien1 (3-0) vs zharkins
In their last meeting this season, N. Dakota State held a 21-17 lead at half before Humboldt St. ran away with it and won 45-28. The takeaway from this game is NDSU's all shotgun attack, they threw 4 interceptions and suffered 5 sacks. In order for NDSU to pull this out, they need to avoid doing the same this time around. Humboldt runs a high sub package so expect them spread the ball around to multiple players. This could be the window that NDSU can exploit, but it's doubtful.
The talent difference leans in Humboldt's favor and limited the YAC and explosive plays will do them well. Their one weakness is probably in the secondary. Based on the previous game and their ability to shut NDSU down in the second half, I think this game ends up with a similar results.
Humboldt St. 48-31
#3 North Alabama (13-0)
vs
(7-6) Central Arkansas
Fazbear05 (2-0) vs seahawkr13
This game will be an easy win for North Alabama who will look to capture an excellent seed and make another run at the gauntlet. In their previous meeting NAU won 58-3 over Central Arkansas in a very convincing victory.
Some things have changed for C. Arkansas though who has put together a magical run since that meeting. It seems like seahawkr13 has found some consistency and won 6 out of their last 7 games, 4 of them over human opponents. The lack of talent hasn't changed since then, but whatever he is doing did.
North Alabama 47-7
Edinboro (8-5)
vs
(13-0) Bloomsburg #7
vhoward415 (1-3) vs jms245
What a great match-up here, jms245 leads the series 3-1 but this game could end up being a close one. Edinboro was able to put over 500 yards in their last meeting, while Bloomsburg topped the 700 mark. If vhoward can find a way to limit the ground game that racked up 31 carries for 4.1 ypc, they could force more 3 and outs. This sounds like an easy game plan, but against a team that converted 18 out of 22 3rd downs, it's a tall order.
Bloomsburg 58-41
#8 Texas A&M-Commerce (13-0)
vs
(13-0) Central Oklahoma #1
akua29 (8-0) vs jawz
The time is coming for jawz and his rebuild at Central Oklahoma. Impressive win over #4 Virginia State 37-13 on the road and another over Angelo State 39-24. It's possible that they could knock off the LSC Champs but they are going up against a wall of talent on defense. Texas A&M-Commerce is very sound on defense this season and especially in the secondary. Central Oklahoma's strength is their running back John Brown who not only has rushed for 1600+ yards but also received 143 times for over 2000 yards. The Linebackers at TAMC could be tested.
Texas A&M-Commerce has their own play-makers on offense but Central Oklahoma's defense is not far behind. There have been a couple good games between these teams and this should be a good one.
Texas A&M-Commerce 45-34
#21 Saint Joseph's (13-0)
vs
(11-2) Kentucky State
fla_dave (0-0) vs princegibson
Surprising match-up here from a team that we know little about. Kentucky State has flown under the radar most of the season but princegibson has played some competitive games. They lost to #21 Southern Connecticut 24-7 and to #13 Midwestern State 17-10. Their most notable win was over Morehouse 24-18. Two things stand out in this game, we learned from Dukelegend when he was at KSU that you don't need all-star talent to win 14 games. Leftover from that run is the redshirt now Senior QB Kenneth Hicks who may be the best QB in Division 2 with a 65.08 core rating (elite). The play-makers to throw too are not quite there but it's a real possibility he could get some points on the board.
Saint Joseph won but a lesser margin to Morehouse who is the most notable common opponent. They like to throw to their running backs which happens to be Kentucky State's strength. Both teams are so close in scoring margins, yards, sacks and interceptions that only the field goal % makes a difference. When you look under the hood though, I think SJ plays more back-ups and that may even out the difference.
Saint Joseph 38-27
NC Central (11-2)
vs
(12-1) Virginia State #5
bucki22 (0-2) vs lsteenberg
Virginia State is the favorite here but the difference may not be by as much as you would think. The only real common opponent to measure them by would be versus Bowie State where VSU scored 11 more points than NC Central. I think if Bucki22 can pull something out in a game plan, he can make this a competitive game.
NC Central has a great running back in Mark Witt (72.92) and he is being utilized effectively in their game plan. If they can keep him on the field longer, then he could be game changing. Right now, he is average around that 20 carries per game mark, I'd hope to see closer to double that to see him shine.
Virginia State has some key studs in the right places on defense and I think that will make the difference.
Virginia State 31-20
Fort Lewis (11-2)
vs
(12-1) W. New Mexico #9
laworog (0-2) vs tmelonhead
Fort Lewis is on their 3rd season with head coach laworog who is still looking for answers on how to capture the conference title. Finishing his second season in a row with 11 wins and rank #36, this is a must win opportunity to make the playoffs.
W. New Mexico features RB Paul Brunson, a beast of a back who rates 76+ core. Still a sore spot after I lost the battle for him back in the days! Expect 30 carries from this elite RB and Fort Lewis won't have the answer for him. In their last meeting, he only carried 24 times and racked up 170 yards with 8 receptions for 128 yards.
W. New Mexico 41-13
Stonehill (12-1)
vs
(13-0) Long Island #6
rushmen (0-1) vs bigpoppa85
So where did Stonehill come from with head coach Rushmen in his second season? Coach chetty1963 brought in some good recruits who are now seniors and what you have is the start of something special. Rushmen finished 9-4 in his first season and now enters tonight's game at 12-1.
While Stonehill is having a great season, they haven't faced a team like Long Island yet. Coach bigpoppa85 has them sitting pretty and ranked #6 as they should cruise into the playoffs. Their talent is a step above Stonehill and this game probably won't be too close.
Long Island 58-13
#11 Ferris State (12-1)
vs
(13-0) Northern Michigan (13-0)
coachoatie (0-0) vs mrbig987
Finally, it's here! This is the game to really watch, two great talented teams with one coach untested and the other battle tested.
Coachoatie has pulled through some amazing games in the past runs and they beat #18 W. Chester 46-43 but lost to #2 Cheyney 20-17. There is an important game here on the list as well, they beat Hillsdale (common opponent) 47-30. If I know one thing about Ferris State, don't think you got the game if you lead at halftime, because they always come back.
Northern Michigan hired mrbig987 this season and he took a little flack after beating Hillsdale 31-30. The thing is, Hillsdale is a very good opponent so any win against them is all that counts. They also had a nice win over Saginaw Valley State 31-17. N. Michigan has superior talent to most teams in this league and an incredibly powerful offense.
Can mrbig silence the critques? The division is watching...
Northern Michgian 31-27
#12 Shepherd (13-0)
vs
(12-1) Tusculum #23
dawgnuts (22-37) vs clememp
One of the longest rivalries in Rockne Division 2, this is going to be their 60th meeting. Clememp leads the series 37-22 and is going to have his hands full tonight with Shepherd's defense.
I think Tusculum has a great shot at winning this one tonight, but their best player WR Tony Brown is facing a pretty stout defense across the board. I like Tusculum's offense more, but their defense is a little suspect in comparison.
Shepherd doesn't have a lot of choices on offense and will need their RB Edwin Galvan to come up big for them to win tonight. He matches well versus Tusculum's linebackers and with shorter field position, could do some damage. Field position will be the key and I think Shepherd can do a better job of controlling it.
Shepherd 38-31
#15 W. Liberty State (13-0)
vs
(13-0) Winona State #18
jibe (1-3) vs gabby123
This could be one of the toughest games to try and predict because both teams have not played a notable playoff contender. W. Liberty State did have a nice win 52-23 over #25 East Stroudsburg who is currently 9-4 and does have a shot and sliding in the playoffs. No matter the results, both of these teams should make it in.
Offensive talent is greater with Winona St but W. Liberty St. will make it up with their secondary and linebacker core. Both teams have different strengths and weaknesses but in this case, I tend to side with the stronger offense.
Winona under gabby123 has a great 1-2 combo at running back and wide receiver with a 63 core QB. No question, they should be able to put up enough points to bring the title home. However, coach jibe pulled off a big upset last season in this game and they are the returning NSIC champs. For some reason, I think they wind just a little short.
Winona State 34-27
#2 Cheyney (13-0)
vs
(9-4) Missouri Western State
waregl72 (1-0) vs bencratsley
Great job by coach bencratsley to get Missouri Western State to the conference title game. In his second season for a total rebuild, they won the games they should and lost to the power schools. The one blemish on their record that stands out is the loss to the sim team 37-24 but rebuilds are challenges. Next season should be even better, but this season ends tonight.
Cheyney is a monster of a program and I can see them in the National Championship this season. They are balanced across the board and match-up well against everyone. They did have a slip versus Ferris State and a close game against Edinboro and Indiana (PA), so we are waiting for that offense to get tuned up more for their run.
Until then... See in you in the playoffs!
Cheyney 61-7