S136 Kickoff Part II
So the other night we discussed the top 5 best ranked teams. At this time nothing has changed as those teams are still winning in each enter the conference play at 5-0.
#6 Winona State
You're in good hands with coach Azcowboy1, who recruited the #6 and #4 recruiting class in his first two seasons at this program. Entering the conference play at 5-0 they are sure favorite to finish strong and get a great seed.
Why they win?
Really good fire power from their number six quarterback Reaves connecting with the #2 wide receiver Earl Hannah. They also have a redshirt senior running back Baldwin who is top 20 talent and will give them the ability to outscore most teams.
Why they don't win?
Youth may play a factor, much like the TAMC team this team also has a ton of young talent that will soon make them very relevant on the national stage. Unfortunately, the offensive line is almost entirely freshman and sophomore and this is also the case for the defensive line, the linebacker and the defensive back groups. Quite a liability versus a team like NMU, Presbyterian and Cheyney.
#7 Tusculum
Clememp played a pretty good non-conference schedule and had a very impressive win over North Alabama 34-20. They have a very senior heavy defense and offensive line that should boast well plus a redshirt wide receiver, quarterback and a solid running back.
Why they win?
The defense is really good, and I think it's going to keep them in a lot of games in the first or second half so that they can still win it. They will likely need to keep the score down on the opponent because they lack the elite playmaker at running back but have a nice wide receiver in Gregory Chang the #9 wide receiver in the nation. With five quarterbacks on the roster no doubt the performance will be consistent which is key for the playoffs and they'll be led by senior QB William Stratton who is currently ranked #11th.
Why they don't win?
They still have to face a tough Shepherd team and a strong Presbyterian squad that may end up in a loss. If they take on 2 losses, it could give them a really tough seed for the tournament. As I mentioned they don't have an elite play maker and against some of the big top five defenses, it might not be enough to make a comeback when it matters.
#8 Humboldt State
This team's been on the incline for the last 3 years with Jaylien1 taking over and finishing last season with 15 wins and a quarterfinal appearance. They should see very little competition throughout the season, so they have a clean slate riding into the tournament. Even though they are undefeated going into conference play, I have them ranked #8 and I will explain near the end.
Why they win?
They have weapons, a top 20 running back and a pair of wide receivers to boot. They have a solid offensive line and their defense should give most teams fits this year. Five defensive linemen inside the top 100, a pair of senior linebackers and an above-average secondary. The coach has eight national championships in an 83.2% win rating, that should be enough to pull it off.
Why they don't win?
Quarterback play is going to be the main liability for this team. They have a junior whose formation IQ is the same as their redshirt freshman and no doubt will throw some turnovers against the top teams. Whether the coach can hide the weakness is not that important because instead, it makes them more one dimensional against a trained eye. Linebacker against the elite performers may be a weakness since most of the linebackers were recruited around the top 25 to top 50 in talent.
#9 Virginia State
This is my sleeper team for the tournament with the last four seasons recruiting classes ranked inside the top 10 but taking on a new head coach in Catfish_Jack. Having played five human coach teams they finish with a record of 3-2 as they head into conference play. Their game against Cheney where they lost 29 to 27 was really intriguing but they're lost in northern Michigan 55 - 17 showed the separation in the overall talent.
Why they win?
Solid offensive line play and good secondary. Great general balanced gives this team lots of options and not really a weakness nor a strength. Not many standout elite players but a lot of just really good players. Their game against Cheney shows that they could possibly sneak into a semi final position with excellent game planning.
Why they don't win?
The quarterback is okay but not great, the defensive line is a bit underclass with only two Juniors is there oldest players, and the linebacking Corps running a 3-4 defense is going to be a concern with only 6 on the roster and most of them are young.
#10 St Joseph's
Head coach tutank has definitely had his ups and downs and last year he brought in the #3 recruit class but this year they dropped to #10. Last year was a tough season, they lost to Kentucky State University and lost the conference championship while finishing the season with four losses. This season they are off to a tough start with a big loss to Northern Michigan, and a one-point loss to Hillsdale 31-30.
Why they win?
It's possible they could bring home the championship but they will need to rely on the running back duo who returb as seniors and both are ranked inside the top 25. Strong defensive line and linebacker Corps to shut down the run and cover the threat that some of the elite teams have when it comes to running backs.
Why they don't win?
After reviewing Rockne for a bit now I can firmly tell you that it is difficult to win championships with a sophomore quarterbacks. The quarterback group is going to be a liability as well as the secondary who has one excellent senior cornerback but the rest are mediocre.
REBUILD TRACKING PART II
Edinboro
Flying way under the radar you'll find head coach vhoward415, slowly building a solid program. It's a really great project to watch because on one hand you have Bloomsburg who clearly was aiming for wins to increase their Vision in the rebuild, and Edinboro is doing the opposite focusing most likely on playtime, work ethic and potential. Call it a turtle race if you will.
When the coach first took over the team and season 133 the last score rating for the team was just over 51 core points. His first recruit class came in at 113th and their roster was ranked number 98. Since then they recruited from 113, 217, 67 and last season number 36. Heading into season 4 they are the 44th best ranked team with a core rating of 54.
Even though it's working very slowly, it is working and you can see the trend that they should make their way up into the top 20 in about two maybe three seasons. And while the struggle has been real as far as their winning record and never gaining more than nine wins since vhoward took over, they enter conference play with only one loss and a real opportunity of winning 11 games this season and possibly a playoff berth.
No doubt it's a great job so far and worth keeping an eye on over the next couple seasons.
Next up will be more conference reviews and who should pull out the conference championships.