S136 Kickoff Edition!
It's kickoff time and another year of some GD football is underway. Some familiar faces look poised to make an appearance in the big dance, but we have some up and comers who could make their path a bit messy.
Summary: I'm picking Northern Michigan as the favorite this year, they match up well against the top teams in those matches. Their ability to use the best RB or WR and overall balance gives them to best opportunity to exploit the other teams weaknesses.
I'm going to go against the grain a little with who I think could be the surprise National Champ this year and that would be West Chester. When you look at their progress over the past 8 seasons and the improvement in recruiting, the signs are there. This teams offense could potentially be the best in D2 but it's going to depend on how 2000champou game plans with it in the playoffs. Look at what Kentucky St. did last season with a 58 talent core, this team plays similar with the all out pass but is coming in at a 73 core and has double seniors in key positions.
NC RADAR CHECK - TOP 5 (Part I)
#1 Northern Michigan (spthibodeau)
My favorite for this season and offers the most balance and experience at winning NC's in the class.
Why they win?
Offensive fire power is at it's best when looking at NMU. 77+ core RB in Bonilla and 75+ core WR in Rodriguez simply out-matches the majority of defensive players in the league. Their defense is solid from top to bottom with no obvious weakness. They have not won the NC in 3 seasons, they are overdue.
Why the don't win?
The offensive line could be a question mark with only 2 OL inside the top 50. They don't bolster the line that Cheyney and Presbyterian has which may lead to some issues against more stout DL's and secondaries who are able to show tight coverage.
#2 West Chester (2000champou)
All signs say GO this season as they could be one of THE most explosive capable teams in the league. Solid playoff performances and recruit classes show that this team is next level and it could be this year.
Why they win?
Offense, offense offense. IQ's are off the chart in key positions and they boast the #4 QB Ralph Erickson who has a option of viable weapons. At RB, they have the dual threat in #13 Avila and #7 Wilson who are both seniors. At WR he has #4 Bates and #5 Parsons who are also both seniors. The icing on the cake is a #4 ranked TE and a top 10 offensive line. The defensive line and defensive back groups are really good with plenty of depth.
Why they lose?
The linebacker group against the RB and TE combo's that the other teams offer. Running the 3-4, their LB core is younger with 2 juniors, 2 sophomore's and 5 freshmen.
#3 Cheyney (waregl72) Looks good in spot 3 because of many factors with the primary being balanced on offense and the trenches, and boasts the 3rd best core ratings.
Why they win?
They have the flexibility of throwing or running behind the 2nd best offensive line. Powered by the #3 QB Williamson and a potent combo of top ten talent at RB or WR. Waregl72 has a proven track record of winning big games and can easily be the difference.
Why they don't win?
The secondary could be a concern and there is a drop off at linebacker after the starting 2. They run the nickel and only have 7 defensive backs and 2 strong linebackers. Once a team wears them down, fatigue and subs could make them fall short.
#4 Texas A&M-Commerce (akua29)
Looks great across the board and comes ranked #1 with GUESS. They will return as the defending champs and have some excellent play-makers.
Why they win?
TAMC boasts the #1 QB Lloyd Foster this season and a top 5 RB in Todd. With 3 WR's within the top 35 and the #3 TE, they have enough weapons to take advantage of most teams defenses. Their returning starting defense is exceptional with 10 out of 11 starters ranked in the top 30.
Why they don't win?
Underclassmen could potential be a show stopper later in the playoffs. 31 players who are sophomore or freshmen will have an affect when the game wears on.
#5 Presbyterian (rposborne)
Comes back after a strong quarterfinal run and ready for a solid run this year. On paper, this is my favorite team period when it comes to offense.
Why they win?
You have the #1 offensive line unit protecting the #2 QB David McGowan who will have #2 RB Martinez and #2 TE Smith as weapons. At wide receiver, 3 out of their 4 are ranked under the top 30. Defensively, they have 3 DB's in the Top 10 and 2 more in the top 100.
Why they don't make it?
Consistency in the playoffs have plagued the team for a few seasons with early 2nd round outs. They look to have rebound last season, but they need to show they can get through those late round games. Their weakness will be in the linebacker group with nobody ranked inside the top 100.
Long Shot's on the Outside?
Saginaw Valley St had an amazing season last year and their coach ojpick was awarded the prestigious Coach of the Year award. So where do they fall this season? Guess has them ranked #11 again for the second season and their cores are actually about the same. For being ranked #11, they made it all the way to the semi-finals and nearly made it to the NC. Quick glance at their team, they have all the play-makers to do the same and they went away early from the 100% run attack that they tried last season. I think overall, this team makes another deep run with a solid seed in the playoffs.
Ferris State has been tearing it up come playoff time with a NC and a NC appearance in the past 3 seasons. Their core ratings are on a decline though and I'm not sure if this season they dropped too much to get them back to the big show. It would really be an impressive run if coachoatie does it and their team core is about the same as last season it's just some other teams have improved. With a light schedule, they should get a shot at the CC and their defense looks really solid.
Conference Reviews - Part I
Tonight, to start of the conference review I will focus just one conference. I usually cover the normal top conferences, but this conference is really improving. The other conferences I will go into next week when we get into conference play.
Just 4 seasons ago, they were ranked 9th out of all the conferences and this season they come in hot at #2. So the question is, what has changed?
Midwestern St has been the standard for quite awhile out of the RMAC, but there are other teams who have made this conference so much more competitive. W. New Mexico and tmelonhead is nipping on MSU heels and ranked less than 1 point in total core rankings.
Mesa St. and Fort Lewis represent the other side of the conference and both programs are 2nd round playoff caliber teams. However, it's justp3ach3y who took over Mesa St after rich4cards left and the impact is noticed. Mesa St. goes from an average recruit ranking of 71 the past 4 seasons to justp3ach3y's ranked 18 average the past 2 seasons. No doubt, this team is on the rise and will be the 3rd part of a growing RMAC.
Finally, you have a Fort Lewis team who won the CC a few seasons ago and now you have a legitimate power conference. They have a key match-up tonight against a tough Virginia State team that could put them on the playoff map.
Kwheeler also joined this season taking over Chandron St. and instantly cut their normal recruiting ranking in half by his presence.
REBUILD TRACKING (Part I)
Often it goes unnoticed, but there are going to be some new names in the near future that you will read a lot about. Two of the teams that standout have playoff potential this season!
W. New Mexico is the team to watch and tmelonhead has been on a mission for the past 7 seasons. Check this out, they have landed the 19th, 16th and 13th recruiting classes in the past 3 seasons. They also have the best freshman redshirt RB in the nation to lead the way! There are still some growing pains, but with the solid LB core and overall talent, this team is 2nd round and possibly quarterfinal talent this season.
Bloomsburg led by Jms245 is in their 4th season of a rebuild and landed their best class yet at #16. Coming in at the 18th ranked best team (GUESS) and has a viable shot at making the second round. To get a better seed, they will have the tough task of taking down #5 West Chester in week 9.
Findlay hired bobbybd back in season 131 and he has seen the bad times and the good times since taking over. His best season was in S133 when he finished 11-3 and last season he finished 9-4. It's a tough rebuild when playing the GLIAC and having to play some great teams every year. When he took over the team rated 53.99 and coming into S136 they are now at 58.67. bobbybd has landed 2 consecutive top 20 classes which shows signs that he has found a system that works and the team is on the rise. I predict the team will make the playoffs this season.
Hillsdale hired omcs1981 in Season 132 after being SIM AI since S106. He has had a great rebuild which is entering it's 5th season and showing a steady progression of improvement with 2 consecutive playoff appearances. Currently ranked #22 after starting out with a team ranked #83, I can see them playing the 2nd round this year and pulling off a surprise upset over Saint Joseph's in week 5 who has a freshman and sophomore quarterback starting.
Morehouse and sportsdouche have made a good team since he joined 4 seasons ago. He took over a SIM AI team that went 1-12 for 2 consecutive seasons and managed to put up 11 and 12 wins in their first 2 seasons. Last season was a down year at 7-6 but you can see the recruit classes are steadily improving with 61,32,15 and this season was 18th. The team is talented enough to make the playoffs this season but I think we will see them shine more in another season or two.
That's enough for tonight, but I plan on covering the rest of the conferences in issues later this week. See you later this week!