S134 Playoffs
Round 2 begins tonight and we are down to the final sixteen teams. Let's break down the top teams left in the tournament. As always, I try to predict who will move on.
NORTHERN BRACKET
In the North, the power of the wolves is strong with Cheyney. Saginaw Valley and Virginia State will try to make a run but it's going to be an uphill battle for both programs. Virginia St. will start by taking care of business tonight versus a Pace team that is having a really great season. Saginaw Valley St. will try to hang with another high powered offense that they have struggled against earlier in the season.
Virginia State vs Pace
Prediction: Virginia State wins 41-20 Results: Virginia State 44-31
Cheyney vs Saginaw Valley St
Prediction: Cheyney wins 44-24 Results: Cheyney 39-7
#11 Virginia State (coral_reefer) Core - (64.58) 10 Seniors Prediction - Quarter Finals
Coral_reefer is having an outstanding year and the program really needed it to increase their recruit vision back up. A 16th win would be excellent and about as much as I can expect from this team without a little help. They have solid weapons at RB and WR with a great defense but will be vulnerable at quarterback play and in their secondary. To move deep, you need to be a little bit better balanced but not by much. I do like that they are pass happy but I'm a little concerned about turnovers in big games. I think they move past Pace but Cheyney is going to cause them issues.
#30 Pace (jpnroos) Core - (59.03) 12 Seniors Prediction - 2nd Round
It's great to see Pace have such an excellent season that will really help this program. Jpnroos has done what any coach would want, that's to go 15-0 in their 2nd season taking over a complete rebuild AND win the conference. Nobody really stands out on their roster and they are going to be an underdog tonight. Should they win... it would make this an amazing season for the program.
#2 Cheyney (waregl72)
Core - (68.09) 14 Seniors Prediciton - Finals
Waregl72 has dominated in recruiting since taking over last season and finished 18-1. This year, they suffered a week 1 loss to Ferris St 21-14. Either team could of won, but the question would be, are they are on NMU's level? While NMU has a slightly better defensive line, Cheyney has a better LB and Secondary. Lead by 4 senior defensive backs is going to slow even the best teams down where every game should be winnable. That's probably all waregl72 needs, is just a chance to win to take the title.
#10 Saginaw Valley St. (ojpick) Core - (64.84) 12 Seniors Prediction - 2nd Round
Great team? Yes. Could they beat most teams? Yes. Can they beat Cheyney? No. While anything is possible, they would need some good fortune to move out of the 2nd round. They beat a good Presbyterian team but that team has been lacking offense this season. When facing high powered offenses like FSU and NMU, they gave up 40+ points. Ojpick has a great LB core that could have a shot at slowing down Cheyney's 75 Core RB Hart but this is another one of those high powered offenses.
SOUTHERN BRACKET
There are 3 teams that could make it out of this bracket with the favorites coming down to TAMC and a close second is West Chester. Saint Joseph is right there and could pull off some big games to also make a run. I like West Chester in the match-up tonight versus Saint Joseph's and TAMC in their match versus Western New Mexico.
Texas A&M Commerce vs W. New Mexico Prediction: TAMC wins 38-17 Results: TAMC 55-17
West Chester vs Saint Joseph's
Prediction: West Chester wins 45-34
Results: West Chester 31-10
#3 Texas A&M-Comm (akua29)
Core - (67.43) 7 Seniors Prediction - Semi-Finals
TAMC has the fewest seniors playing of any program that's currently in round 2. Still, the talent is very competitive to the other top programs but their strength is a triad at RB. They feature 2 redshirt seniors and 1 redshirt junior that is likely to pose an issue for most teams. Almost all of their offensive line are rated 70 core and hire. Could this be the kryptonite to Cheyney's beefy secondary?
#23 W. New Mexico (tmelonhead) Core - (60.86) 15 Seniors Prediction - 2nd Round
Entering the 2nd Round with tmelonhead's best season since taking over this program 5 seasons ago. They had a great win over West Liberty State 45-24 and Long Island 34-20 in Round 1. A very interesting scheme running the Wishbone with a 4-4 / Nickel defense. This should match-up fairly well against TAMC's ground and pound attack but they will struggle in their secondary if they are able to move on with no one in the 60 cores. They are setting up a nice running back core group with plenty of depth. With 2 seniors to feed the ball in a heavy ground attack it will be interesting to see if the 3-4 is able to slow it down.
#5 West Chester (2000champou) Core - (65.53) 14 Seniors Predicition - Quarter Finals
It's time for West Chester to push it and they finished 16-1 last season in the quarterfinals. 2000champou's team is solid but their strength is at linebacker with 4 of them and 9 deep! This is an answer if they end up facing TAMC but they have to survive versus a stingy Saint Joseph's squad first. Tonight is going to be the first real game to see how they compete and the battles will only get more difficult moving forward.
#9 Saint Joseph's (tutank) Core- (64.86) 14 Seniors Predicition - 2nd Round
It could be a tough draw versus West Chester in Round 2. I like tutank's team and their secondary is really nice featuring 4 Seniors. They also have 3 really nice DL's and 2 LB's. Great offensive line and backfield but the wide receiver core is hurting a bit. Their starting quarterback is also a bit suspect but thankfully he is a senior. The recipe for success is going to be getting their RB's involved and relying on the defense for field position.
EASTERN BRACKET
The eastern bracket is up from grabs between two power-house programs at Ferris St. and Valdosta St. We will know tomorrow who is most likely going to sweep the bracket and move the semi-finals. I think Ferris State has the best chance featuring their high powered offense and already facing some nice head to head games during the season. Midwestern State and North Alabama will take on the underdog role and whoever wins the game, needs show an impressive performance. North Alabama had a very surprising close win over Bloomsburg that leaves me wondering which team is going to show up tonight. MSU has been very steady and consistently is putting up points.
Midwestern State vs North Alabama Predicition: Midwestern State wins 38-35 Results: Midwestern State 37-23
Ferris State vs Valdosta State Prediction: Ferris St. Wins 34-28 Results: Valdosta State 38-27
#13 Midwestern State (Linux_Box) Core - (63.66) 13 Seniors Prediction - Quarter Finals
MSU lead by Linux_Box is putting together a great season and will look to make it to the Quarter Finals. They have North Alabama in front of them they should win it. N. Alabama is coming off a very shaky game and MSU has a better defense overall. The QB, RB, WR and TE weapons are all there and with a solid defense they should pull out a close game tonight.
#17 North Alabama (Fazbear05) Core - (61.76) 9 Seniors Prediction - 2nd Round
Fazbear05 is a tough coach to play and I really didn't think that last game versus Bloomsburg was going to be that close (44-41). I'm not sure what happened to the defense being that Bloomsburg is in the 2nd year of the rebuild. They proved they can compete by beatingNC Central, Tusculum and Presbyterian. We know they are not quite there yet against the top 6 teams but MSU should be a winnable game with Fazbear05's game plan experience. We will see how tonight goes, but based off last game performance where they struggled with match-ups, I have MSU slightly ahead.
#6 Ferris State (coachoatie) Core - (65.43) 14 Seniors Predicition - Semi-Finals
Not a sleeper, but a real sneaky play moving forward. I know they lost to NMU twice but would they lose a 3rd time if they met? That's super tough for a coach to pull off and that's just what Ferris State would probably look forward too. Coachoatie did take down Cheyney 21-14 and Saginaw Valley State 41-17. The beat Angelo State 42-17 who TAMC beat 37-17. So with common opponents, you could say it goes NMU, FSU, then Cheyney/TAMC. Here is the issue, they got to beat Valdosta St. to have a real shot at facing NMU again. WR Roth is a beast with a 76.14 Rating and they have a great RB in Pacheco at 74.76 Core. FSU seems to always be more of an offensive team and with these guys, they can outscore most teams.
#7 Valdosta State (champ83) Core - (65.24) 11 Seniors Predicition - 2nd Round
Champ83 very rarely finishes a season below the semi-finals, let alone the quarter-finals. VSU did beat North Alabama who is currently in the 2nd round 48-16. They also took out Tusculum who is a sneaky play and can pull off some nice wins. The question is, do they have an answer for FSU's high scoring offense. Defensively, I'm not sure. Scheme wise, absolutely but talent in the secondary may pose an issue for FSU's stud WR. On offense they do have a stud at RB Jenkins who is probably the 2nd best in Division 2. Core of 78.38 and has 81 Speed, 80 Strength and 92 Elusiveness... that's nasty. This is going to be trouble and I'm really excited to see who moves forward.
WESTERN BRACKET
Western bracket was really Northern Michigan's for the taking. Central Washington is lacking a lot of talent to compete and really Winona State should be the match-up we see in the quarter finals. Humboldt St. could pull off an upset tonight but their shaky play during the season leaves me wondering how possible it is. Winona State will need to turn their offense up if they are to compete with Humboldt and try to beat NMU.
Northern Michigan vs Central Washington Prediction: NMU wins 55-10 Results: Northern Michigan 69-14
Humboldt State vs Winona State Prediction: Winona St. wins 34-24 Results: Winona State 43-3
#1 Northern Michigan (spithbodeau) Core - (68.3) 11 Seniors Prediciton - Finals
It's difficult to bet against a power-house such as Northern Michigan. Head coach spithbodeau has put up one of the most impressive NC streaks in Rockne. After a down year, they pulled off two huge wins over Ferris St. to let us know that they are back. RB Harris is ridiculous on this squad and I will be seriously impressed if a team can slow him down. 88 Speed, 76 Strength, 87 Elusiveness is godly in Division 2 ball.
#44 Central Washington (AJ_Scarlato) Core - (57.81) 11 Seniors Prediction - 2nd Round
Central Washington What?? So after the recruiting violations, they were punished by missing the chance to clinch the CC last year and missing the playoffs... This season they had multiple suspensions and I had assumed probably on probation again. They were 2 points away from playing in their CC this year and had a nice win over West Liberty State 26-24 in Round 1. That's a very similar score to Winona St's win this year over the same program. Keep your eye out for this team in the future, they are winning games they probably shouldn't and learned their lesson regarding booster gifts. Lacking the talent they need, the likely hood of moving past NMU this season will be over pretty quick I'm afraid.
#12 Humboldt State (maldito) Core - (63.80) 11 Seniors Prediciton - 2nd Round
They made it, it was a scary ride and they managed to barely slip past Central Washington and Augustana to win the conference. They did lose to a Sim team this year and that's usually a lack of talent or possibly game plan error. The team has the talent which is why they are in the 2nd round, but I think their coach may have checked out a little. The rumor is this might be his last season which puts Humboldt St. on the market next year. For now, they have a good chance to move forward if they can take over Winona State. Winona is a bit better but it's a very winnable game and hopefully to turn the ship around to make a nice run.
#4 Winona State (kwheeler) Core - (66.53) 20 Seniors Predicition - Quarter Finals
This is, it doesn't get much better then this. 4th ranked best core team featuring 20 seniors should be a handful for every team they face. Their task is simple, beat Northern Michigan and you become the favorite. Wins over 4 human opponents are solid, the scoring margin is a little too close for comfort. Their recent win over NC Central 30-0 was impressive considering this was their second time playing them. The strength of their team is the offensive line and total balance across all positions.